October 22, 2023
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In a three-way presidential poll with former President Donald Trump, President Joe Biden and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump wins.
Trump leads with 39% in a recent Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey, originally published by The Hill. Biden follows with 33%, and Kennedy trails at 19%.
The undecided garners 9%. Of the undecided, 42% would back Trump if they were to make a decision, 36% would choose Biden, and 22% would pick Kennedy.
Removing Kennedy from the contest, Trump still takes the lead with 5% point-lead over Biden, 46% to 41%.
"Trump’s polling continues to defy gravity both in the primary and the general election. Kennedy right now doesn’t change the result — an election held today would elect Donald Trump," poll co-director Mark Penn said.
Penn served as the pollster for both Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton. He is the husband of Nancy Jacobson, who is the Founder of No Labels which is working vigorously to get No Labels on state ballots for a 2024 presidential candidate if No Labels decides to move forward.
In the same poll, Trump also remains the front runner in the 2024 republican primaries, leading with 60% support to his nearest rival Ron DeSantis trailing with 11%.
The Harvard CAP-Harris Poll survey was conducted Oct. 18-19 after Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. had announced in Philadelphia on Oct. 9 that he was no longer running for president as a democrat, and opting to run as an independent.
The survey questioned 2,116 registered voters.
Kennedy has chosen to run as an independent presidential candidate because the Democratic National Committee has decided there will be no democratic debates. In addition, the national party, in conjunction with democratic state parties, has changed the rules, and even decided that even if Kennedy were to win delegates as a result of primary and caucus result in some states, those delegates will not be assigned to his candidacy.
The Kennedy campaign has confirmed it will make a robust effort to have Kennedy’s name on every state ballot for the 2024 election.
The last time an independent with any gravitas ran as an independent presidential candidate was Ross Perot in 1992. Even though Perot came in third, his campaign launched a very effective “get on the ballot” campaign and Perot participated in the presidential debates with President George H.W. Bush and Governor William J. Clinton.
Perot ran a down-home folksy independent campaign filled with charts and jokes and pulled equally from Bush and Clinton in the 1992 presidential election. He focused on seven issues that landed on American's kitchen table and predicted the loss of American manufacturing jobs if NAFTA ever passed.
Five million Americans came together and put Perot on the ballot in 50 states. His campaign did not use special interest money or Political Action Committee (PAC) monies.
Clinton went on to win the 1992 presidency with only 43% of eligible Americans voting overall and supported NAFTA, which expanded globalization, but shut down manufacturing jobs across the Rust Belt.
